March 15, 2015 Cyclone Pam

March 15, 2015   Cyclone Pam

Most of the time I was home, the weather in Fiji was beautiful, although excruciatingly hot.  but the  last week I started to see warnings about a tropical disturbance building.  Gradually it gained strength over the warm waters in the southern ocean.  It moved a little one way and then the other, trying to decide what to do but it was definitely looking like a threat.  By the time I got on the plane it was a category 3 cyclone and heading towards Fiji, expected to hit a couple of days after I landed.  The in-flight movie screen showed 50mph head winds and the fasten seatbelt sigh stayed on the last several hours.   A cyclone, by the way, is simply a hurricane in the southern hemisphere.  The weather was cool and overcast when I arrived, a relief actually from the heat of the previous weeks. 

While I was gone, a cyclone preparation meeting was held .  This marina is specifically designed to be as cyclone safe as possible.   The entry channel turns trice to deflect any waves and a gate can be moved across the channel to block the surge.  Almost all of the boats have been turned bow out and chained front and rear.  All loose gear is off the decks and now it is a waiting game.  We check the weather sites several times a day.  It is now big enough to have a name and growing daily but it is barely moving.  Each weather service seems to have a different prediction for it’s path, The dozen or so remaining sailors gather each evening in the bar to share war stories of pervious storms and give their own predictions as to whether or not Pam will hit.  .  By and large, most do not think it will hit, or if it does, will not be too bad.  I am not sure.  It looks huge on the null school wind website.  When I take the bus into town there is a lot of wind and sudden bursts of rain but people seem to be going about their business with out too much concern, although the fishing fleet is staying in port.

The barometer is dropping day by day and there is a heaviness and stillness to the air.  The sea is surprisingly still and Pam it just sits there, growing and growing. At the bar we are treated to sudden downpourings of rain, causing the staff to close the shutters for an hour or so until it clears up again.   Little by little it becomes clear that it will miss Fiji but hit Vanuatu.  And indeed, it does slam into Vanuatu as a category 5, one of the biggest ever.  Boats are sunk, home blown apart, trees uprooted and crops destroyed.  People are posting real time videos onto you tube and several of the weather sites.  And then it is gone, moving on south.  There are a few more days of nerves until it is clear that it is so far south that it cannot suddenly turn and come towards Fiji. 


As the danger passes, I find myself wondering what would have happened if it had struck here.  Alan’s plan was to stay on the boat and ride it out but it would have been a wild and dangerous ride.  Once the warning is given, the boats are pulled out to the center and it is no longer possible to get off.  The marina has thought very carefully about how to minimize danger to the boats but as far as I can tell, very little had been done to provide safe shelter for any crew that are here.  We had no back up plan, except to try to get into town and find a hotel if it started to look really dangerous.  By that time the buses would probably have stopped running.  None of the buildings on the grounds seem very strong.  We will be here through at least one more season and next year is supposed to be worse because of the El Nino conditions.  We obviously need to give this some more thought.